Funding Both Sides
DOWNLOAD PDF ↓“The U.S. is funding a war against itself.” — Danny Citrinowicz, Institute for National Security Studies
TL;DR: The US is simultaneously bombing Iran and lifting sanctions on Iranian oil. The 30-day waiver on 140M barrels hands Tehran ~$14B while providing Americans “pennies” of gas relief. The same week, Israel struck South Pars (world’s largest gas field) and Iran fired missiles at Diego Garcia 2,500 miles away. Maximum pressure has eaten itself.
Key Numbers
- 140M barrels unsanctioned (30-day window, expires April 19)
- $14 billion approximate revenue to Tehran at current prices
- 1.5 days of global consumption — that’s all 140M barrels covers
- 3rd waiver in 2 weeks (Russia 130M bbl, Venezuela PDVSA, now Iran)
- $112/bbl Brent crude; US gas avg $3.91, up 93 cents in 3 weeks
- 2,500 miles — range of Iran’s Diego Garcia missile attempt (double assessed capability)
What’s Happening
The Treasury Department issued a 30-day sanctions waiver allowing purchase of 140M barrels of Iranian crude at sea. Bessent calls it “using their barrels against them.” Analysts call it a straw in a broken water main. The waiver is the third adversary-oil waiver in two weeks (Russia, Venezuela, now Iran) and signals the administration has run out of supply-side tools.
The paradox is structural. Trump built his Iran brand on maximum pressure and mocked Obama’s “pallets of cash.” He’s now providing sanctions relief that dwarfs what Obama unfroze — during an active war. The same week the waiver dropped, Israel struck South Pars and Iran fired IRBMs at Diego Garcia. The country being paid $14B just demonstrated it can strike the Indian Ocean. Trump said March 21 he’s “not interested in a ceasefire.”
The credibility damage may outlast the war. Every future US sanctions regime now carries an asterisk: sanctions hold until gas hits $4.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Prob. | What Happens |
|---|---|---|
| Waiver expires, not renewed | 20% | Oil spikes again. Gas toward $5+. |
| Waiver extended/expanded | 35% | Max pressure doctrine dead. Allies lose sanctions confidence. |
| Waiver as negotiating lever | 20% | Best case — but Trump says “not interested in ceasefire.” |
| Iran refuses to sell | 10% | Already said “no surplus.” Waiver becomes theater. |
| Escalation renders it moot | 15% | South Pars, Ras Laffan, Diego Garcia. $150+ crude. |
What You Can Do
- Don’t count on relief: 10-14 days, pennies per gallon. Budget for $4-5 gas through summer.
- Watch April 19: Waiver expiration. Fill up before then.
- Call your reps: Durbin (312-353-4952), Duckworth (312-886-3506). No congressional war authorization after 8 failed votes.
- Follow the money: $14B to Iran while families pay $300M/day more for gas. Ask who this serves.
Best Memes From the Report
TRUMP 2016: “OBAMA SENT PALLETS OF CASH TO IRAN” / TRUMP 2026: UNSANCTIONS $14B IN IRANIAN OIL — Maximum pressure has left the chat
SANCTIONS ARE THE CORNERSTONE OF US ECONOMIC POWER / UNLESS GAS HITS $4 — The price of American credibility is about a dollar a gallon
140 MILLION BARRELS SOUNDS LIKE A LOT / IT’S 1.5 DAYS OF GLOBAL CONSUMPTION — “Replacing a water main with a straw”
GP-RPT-2026-012 | 21 March 2026
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