Three Weeks In
DOWNLOAD PDF ↓“Our farmers across the country are heading into spring planting, and they’re facing one of the toughest economic environments that we’ve seen in decades.” — Zippy Duvall, AFBF President, March 2026
TL;DR: Three weeks into Operation Epic Fury, the war has escalated from transit disruption into mutual infrastructure destruction. Israel struck South Pars (world’s largest gas field). Iran retaliated against Ras Laffan LNG (17% of global capacity, 5-year repair), then fired missiles at Diego Garcia 2,500 miles away. Chicago gas hit $4.08, diesel crossed $5, USDA projects 4.8M acres shifting from corn to soybeans, and Trump says he’s “not interested in a ceasefire.”
Key Numbers
- $4.08/gal — Chicago gas (up $1 in 3 weeks); diesel over $5.00
- $100-112/bbl — Brent crude; pre-war: $64; Goldman war premium: $14/bbl
- 90%+ — Hormuz traffic reduction (IEA: <10% of pre-crisis); selective passage at ~20%
- 17% — Global LNG capacity destroyed (Ras Laffan); 5-year repair
- 25% short — US fertilizer supply vs. normal spring levels
- 4.8M acres — USDA projected corn-to-soy shift (was 1.5M two weeks ago)
- $200B — Pentagon’s additional funding request for the war
- 2,500 mi — Range of Iran’s Diego Garcia missile attempt (double assessed capability)
What Changed (Mar 13-21)
March 18 was the inflection point. Israel struck South Pars, Iran’s largest gas field (70% of domestic supply). Iran retaliated against Ras Laffan, plus targets in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. On March 21, Iran fired IRBMs at Diego Garcia — revealing missile range far beyond the 2,000 km Western intelligence had assessed. The Pentagon requested $200B more. Trump said he “won,” then said he’s “not interested in a ceasefire.” The administration eased sanctions on Venezuelan, Russian, and Iranian oil in the same two-week span.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Prob. | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| Negotiated Wind-Down (30-60 days) | 10% | Gas $3.50-3.80. Corn shift locked. No recession. |
| Prolonged Stalemate (3-6 months) | 35% | Gas $4.50-5.00. Layoffs begin. Recession by Q3. |
| Partial De-escalation (sanctions waivers) | 20% | Gas holds $3.80-4.20. LNG shortage through 2027+. |
| Escalation ($150+ oil) | 25% | Gas $6+. Farm crisis. CTA overwhelmed. Diego Garcia shows Iran will strike far. |
| Diplomatic Breakthrough | 10% | Gas $3.30. LNG still impaired (Ras Laffan). |
What You Can Do
- Gas: GasBuddy. 60c variation between neighborhoods. NW Indiana saves 29c/gal.
- Transit: CTA 30-day pass ($75) < two fill-ups. Metra monthly $101-168.
- Farmers: Lock fertilizer TODAY. AFBF at fb.org. Treasury relief expected “in days.”
- Call your reps: Durbin (312-353-4952), Duckworth (312-886-3506). Ask about $15B farmer aid, gas tax relief, war authorization.
- Budget for food inflation: Oil up 56% = ~15% food increase over 6-12 months. Bulk buy staples.
- Watch the sanctions waiver: 140M barrels of Iranian oil. Expires April 19.
Best Memes From the Report
TRUMP: “WE’VE WON” / IRAN STRIKES KUWAITI REFINERY SAME DAY — Victory has never been so expensive
EVEN IF THE WAR ENDS TOMORROW / RAS LAFFAN IS A 5-YEAR REPAIR — Structural damage doesn’t care about ceasefire timelines
FED: CAN’T CUT (INFLATION) / FED: CAN’T HIKE (RECESSION) — The stagflation trap is not a vibe, it’s a policy prison
GP-RPT-2026-011 | 21 March 2026
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