GEOPOLI INSTITUTE
IMPACT ASSESSMENT 2026.03.07 REF. GP-RPT-2026-002

Operation Epic Fury: How the Iran War Hit the 312

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“Nobody asked Chicago how we felt about this. We found out at the gas pump like everybody else.” — Portage Park resident, March 4, 2026

TL;DR: One week into the US-Iran war, Chicago gas is up 34 cents, the Iranian-American community is split between celebration and grief, downtown protests are growing, and the White House is posting SpongeBob war memes.

Key Numbers

What’s Happening

The US launched Operation Epic Fury on February 28, striking 1,000+ targets across Iran. Khamenei is dead. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Gas prices are climbing fast, and Moody’s chief economist warns this hits lower-income households hardest — the people “already under a lot of financial pressure.”

Chicago’s ~30,000 Iranian-Americans are living a split screen. At Daley Plaza, families who fled the regime celebrated with music and sweets. In Skokie, residents can’t reach family back home — internet has been blacked out since February 27. “You have this dual identity,” said one resident. The sympathy extended to Ukrainians is not offered to Iranians.

The streets are active. Four major anti-war demonstrations in one week, with PSL, DSA, CODEPINK, veterans groups, and Palestinian solidarity orgs forming a broad coalition. Meanwhile, the White House social media team is posting war footage set to SpongeBob clips and Childish Gambino. Amnesty International called it “deliberate glamorisation of violence.” The Pentagon’s first official briefing was described as “light on strategic objectives, heavy on memeable content.”

Scenarios

ScenarioProb.Chicago Impact
Quick Resolution20%Gas back to ~$3.10 by April. Protests taper.
Grinding Stalemate40%Gas hits $4+. Food prices rise 5-10%. Protests intensify.
Wider Escalation25%Gas hits $5+. Recession risk. Guard deployments.
Diplomatic Off-Ramp15%Markets stabilize. Gas normalizes in 4-6 weeks.

What You Can Do

  1. Lock in gas prices with warehouse club memberships or prepaid cards
  2. Support Iranian-American community orgs (NIAC, Chicago Persian School)
  3. Contact Senator Duckworth and Senator Durbin on war powers
  4. Attend community forums — next protest: March 7, Water Tower Park

Best Memes From the Report

TRUMP AT STATE OF THE UNION: “I HAVE TAMED INFLATION”

GAS PRICES ONE WEEK LATER: ↑ 14%

Narrator: He had not tamed inflation.

WORLD WAR III MIGHT BE STARTING

EUROPEANS: “We’ll discuss it Monday. It’s the weekend.”

1.5 million views. Peak European energy.

CHICAGOANS ON FEBRUARY 27: “AT LEAST GAS IS CHEAP”

CHICAGOANS ON MARCH 1: “MARCHING TO TRUMP TOWER IN 15°F WIND CHILL”

Nothing motivates a Chicagoan like a combination of outrage and the need to generate body heat


GP-RPT-2026-002 | 7 March 2026


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