This isn't a spike --- it's a structural reset. Ras Laffan (5-year repair), South Pars (struck March 18), Hormuz (<10% throughput). Goldman says $100+ oil through 2027. Chicago gas is $4.46, utility rate hikes totaling $437M are filed, and the city carries $53B in unfunded pensions.
Three weeks into Operation Epic Fury, the war has escalated from transit disruption into mutual infrastructure destruction. Israel struck South Pars. Iran retaliated against Ras Laffan LNG (17% of global capacity, 5-year repair), then fired missiles at Diego Garcia 2,500 miles away. Chicago gas hit $4.08, diesel crossed $5, and Trump says he's not interested in a ceasefire.
The US is simultaneously bombing Iran and lifting sanctions on Iranian oil. The 30-day waiver on 140M barrels hands Tehran ~$14B while providing Americans pennies of gas relief. Maximum pressure has eaten itself.
The Strait of Hormuz is 95% shut. Illinois grows 15% of America's corn, refines 1M+ barrels of crude per day, and depends on nitrogen fertilizer that just got 43% more expensive --- three weeks before spring planting.
Chicago gas hits $3.79/gal as Brent crude whipsaws between $92 and $120. Hormuz is 95% shut. G7 mulls a 400M-barrel SPR release. People's Gas still wants $202M. Here's what you can do about it.
One week into the US-Iran conflict, Chicago is feeling the blast radius in its gas prices, its communities, its streets, and its social media feeds.
Every structural fragility the worldview framework tracks is being stress-tested simultaneously. The Iran war is the most visible, but it's running alongside eroding institutions, cascading economic fragility, and a population with no mechanism to influence any of it.