How do we survive without sacrificing our values?
Geopoli Institute watches how power actually moves. We publish what we find for people who have to make decisions about what comes next.
This isn't a spike --- it's a structural reset. Ras Laffan (5-year repair), South Pars (struck March 18), Hormuz (<10% throughput). Goldman says $100+ oil through 2027. Chicago gas is $4.46, utility rate hikes totaling $437M are filed, and the city carries $53B in unfunded pensions.
Three weeks into Operation Epic Fury, the war has escalated from transit disruption into mutual infrastructure destruction. Israel struck South Pars. Iran retaliated against Ras Laffan LNG (17% of global capacity, 5-year repair), then fired missiles at Diego Garcia 2,500 miles away. Chicago gas hit $4.08, diesel crossed $5, and Trump says he's not interested in a ceasefire.
The US is simultaneously bombing Iran and lifting sanctions on Iranian oil. The 30-day waiver on 140M barrels hands Tehran ~$14B while providing Americans pennies of gas relief. Maximum pressure has eaten itself.